Germany’s nuclear shutdown did not increase CO₂ emissions

The most comprehensive studies on the subject are clear, the continued operation of nuclear power plants would have reduced German CO₂ emissions by tens of millions of metric tons each year. Keeping in mind that the carbon footprint for one passenger on a round trip Paris-New York flight is about 1.5 metric tons of CO₂.

Accelerated shutdown following the Fukushima accident

After the Fukushima-Daiichi accident, Germany decided to accelerate its exit from nuclear power. The nuclear capacity installed in the country therefore dropped from 21.5 GW in 2010 to zero, 15 years later [1].

Thanks to the massive deployment of renewable energies and the transition from a historical role as a net exporter of electricity to a structural situation as an importer, Germany nevertheless managed to reduce CO₂ emissions from its electricity sector at the same time [2]. However, Germany remains one of the countries with the highest emission factor (number of grams of CO₂ emitted per kWh produced) in Europe [3].

What if Germany had kept its nuclear power plants?

So the real question is: how much total CO₂ emissions could have been avoided if Germany had extended the operation of its nuclear power plants? Most studies agree that this represents several tens of millions of metric tons of CO₂ prevented each year. An economic study, covering the period 2012-2019 and published in a peer-reviewed journal, estimates for example that the closure of nuclear power plants generated 26 MtCO₂ of additional emissions per year, the equivalent of 15 million round trip flights from Paris to New York [4].

In addition, burning fossil fuels has a significant impact on air quality. The same study estimates that the decision to phase out nuclear power in Germany caused nearly 800 additional deaths each year between 2012 and 2019 compared to the counterfactual scenario of maintaining nuclear capacities [4].

In conclusion, while Germany remains one of the European countries emitting the most CO₂ per kWh produced, the rapid integration of renewable energies into the electricity mix has made it possible to reduce emissions from the German electricity sector. However, a scenario where nuclear was maintained would have led to an even faster decline and allowed a much earlier elimination of coal from the mix.